Major shifts in biogeographic regions of freshwater fishes as evidence of the Anthropocene epoch.

Animals and plants worldwide are structured in global biogeographic regions, which were shaped by major geologic forces during Earth history. Recently, humans have changed the course of events by multiplying global pathways of introduction for nonindigenous species and propagating local species extirpations. Here, we report on how introductions and extirpations have changed the distributions of freshwater fishes worldwide and how it affected their natural biogeographic regions. We found major shifts in natural regions, with the emergence of an intercontinental region arising from the fusion of multiple faunas, which we named Pan-Anthropocenian Global North and East Asia (PAGNEA). The PAGNEA region is evocative of the Pangea supercontinent, as flows of introductions show that dispersal has become possible again across multiple continents, suggesting that human activities have superseded natural geological forces. Our results constitute evidence on the expected modification of biostratigraphic boundaries based on freshwater fish, which are abundant in the fossil record, thereby supporting the concept of the Anthropocene epoch.

Eutrophication induces functional homogenization and traits filtering in Chinese lacustrine fish communities.

Rapid anthropogenic nutrient enrichment has caused widespread ecological problems in aquatic ecosystems and the resulting eutrophication has dramatically changed fish communities throughout the world. However, few studies addressed how fish communities responded to eutrophication in terms of multidimensional functional and taxonomic structure, especially how eutrophication acted as an environment filter on functional traits. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of eutrophication on fish species composition, community metrics and species functional traits in 26 shallow lakes from the middle reaches of Yangtze River basin, China. This study validated that eutrophication is an important factor shaping the fish community structure. Regression analyses showed that eutrophication favored higher total biomass and lower functional diversity of fish communities but had little effect on species richness. Despite the fact that some pelagic zooplanktivorous species were more abundant in the most eutrophic lakes, multivariate analyses of the relationships between species traits and environmental variables revealed weak relationships between feeding traits and eutrophication. In contrast, species with a benthic life stage were negatively associated with eutrophication while those with a large body size and high absolute fecundity showed the opposite trend. Due to demersal habitat degradation, and to a lesser degree, to changes in trophic resources availability, eutrophication caused functional simplification of fish communities by increasing functional traits homogeneity among the most tolerant species. Some relationships between functional traits and eutrophication well established in the western palearctic have not been observed in this study, emphasizing the importance of biases resulting from specific evolutionary histories. This work will provide useful insights on on-going restoration and management of shallow lakes in the Yangtze River basin.

Quantifying the relative performance of two undetected-extinction models.

Extinctions of undiscovered species (undetected extinctions) constitute a portion of biodiversity loss that is often ignored. We compared the performance of 2 models of undetected extinctions - Tedesco and SEUX - when estimating undetected extinctions with both simulated and real-world data. We generated simulated data by considering a birth-death process in which less abundant species were more likely to go extinct. When detection rates were higher for common species, the 2 models underestimated the true number of undetected extinctions by up to 88.7%, and when detection rates were independent of abundance, the 2 models performed better; the SEUX model had an average bias of +3.1% and the Tedesco model had an average bias of -62.3%. We applied the models to 8 real-world data sets (e.g., Australian amphibians, Australian birds, North American bivalves) and found that true extinctions may be from 15% to 180% higher than observed values. For 6 of the 8 data sets, the SEUX model yielded absolute estimates that were 5.7-66.8% lower than those of the Tedesco model. We mainly attributed this difference to the SEUX model's assumption that there are no undetected extant species currently. We assessed the accuracy of the models' estimates with a logistic regression to test whether detection and extinction rates were uncorrelated across species. Rates were correlated for 3 of the 8 data sets; species discovered later had a higher probability of being extinct, suggesting that extinction numbers could be even higher for these groups. Despite caveats associated with the models, the evidence from both show biodiversity loss in these groups may be more severe than what has been documented.

Cuantificación del Desempeño Relativo de Dos Modelos de Extinción No Detectada Resumen Las extinciones no detectadas constituyen una porción de la pérdida de la biodiversidad que comúnmente pasa desapercibida. Comparamos el desempeño de dos modelos de extinciones no detectadas - Tedesco y SEUX - durante su estimación de extinciones no detectadas tanto con datos simulados como reales. Generamos datos simulados mediante la consideración de un proceso de nacimiento-muerte en el cual las especies menos abundantes tenían una mayor probabilidad de extinguirse. Cuando las tasas de detección fueron mayores para las especies comunes, los dos modelos subestimaron el número real de extinciones no detectadas hasta en un 88.7%; cuando las detecciones fueron independientes a la abundancia, ambos modelos tuvieron un mejor desempeño. El modelo SEUX tuvo un sesgo promedio de +3.1% y el modelo Tedesco uno de -62.3%. Aplicamos estos modelos en ocho conjuntos de datos reales (p. ej.: anfibios australianos, aves australianas, bivalvos norteamericanos) y descubrimos que las extinciones verdaderas podrían ser desde 15% a 180% más altas que los valores observados. Para seis de los ocho conjuntos de datos, el modelo SEUX produjo estimaciones absolutas que fueron entre 5.7% y 66.8% más bajas que las producidas por el modelo Tedesco. Esta diferencia la atribuimos principalmente a la suposición del modelo SEUX de que actualmente no existen especies no detectadas. Evaluamos la certeza de las estimaciones de cada modelo con una regresión logística para comprobar si las tasas de detección y extinción no tenían correlación en todas las especies. Las tasas tuvieron correlación en tres de los ocho conjuntos de datos; las especies descubiertas más tarde tuvieron una probabilidad más alta de estar extintas, lo que sugiere que los datos de extinción podrían ser mayores para estos grupos. A pesar de las salvedades asociadas a estos modelos, la evidencia de ambos muestra que la pérdida de biodiversidad en estos grupos podría ser más severa de lo que se ha documentado hasta ahora.

Paternity tests support a diallelic self-incompatibility system in a wild olive (Olea europaea subsp. laperrinei, Oleaceae).

Self-incompatibility (SI) is the main mechanism that favors outcrossing in plants. By limiting compatible matings, SI interferes in fruit production and breeding of new cultivars. In the Oleeae tribe (Oleaceae), an unusual diallelic SI system (DSI) has been proposed for three distantly related species including the olive (Olea europaea), but empirical evidence has remained controversial for this latter. The olive domestication is a complex process with multiple origins. As a consequence, the mixing of S-alleles from two distinct taxa, the possible artificial selection of self-compatible mutants and the large phenological variation of blooming may constitute obstacles for deciphering SI in olive. Here, we investigate cross-genotype compatibilities in the Saharan wild olive (O. e. subsp. laperrinei). As this taxon was geographically isolated for thousands of years, SI should not be affected by human selection. A population of 37 mature individuals maintained in a collection was investigated. Several embryos per mother were genotyped with microsatellites in order to identify compatible fathers that contributed to fertilization. While the pollination was limited by distance inside the collection, our results strongly support the DSI hypothesis, and all individuals were assigned to two incompatibility groups (G1 and G2). No self-fertilization was observed in our conditions. In contrast, crosses between full or half siblings were frequent (ca. 45%), which is likely due to a nonrandom assortment of related trees in the collection. Finally, implications of our results for orchard management and the conservation of olive genetic resources are discussed.

Freshwater fish diversity hotspots for conservation priorities in the Amazon Basin.

Conserving freshwater habitats and their biodiversity in the Amazon Basin is a growing challenge in the face of rapid anthropogenic changes. We used the most comprehensive fish-occurrence database available (2355 valid species; 21,248 sampling points) and 3 ecological criteria (irreplaceability, representativeness, and vulnerability) to identify biodiversity hotspots based on 6 conservation templates (3 proactive, 1 reactive, 1 representative, and 1 balanced) to provide a set of alternative planning solutions for freshwater fish protection in the Amazon Basin. We identified empirically for each template the 17% of sub-basins that should be conserved and performed a prioritization analysis by identifying current and future (2050) threats (i.e., degree of deforestation and habitat fragmentation by dams). Two of our 3 proactive templates had around 65% of their surface covered by protected areas; high levels of irreplaceability (60% of endemics) and representativeness (71% of the Amazonian fish fauna); and low current and future vulnerability. These 2 templates, then, seemed more robust for conservation prioritization. The future of the selected sub-basins in these 2 proactive templates is not immediately threatened by human activities, and these sub-basins host the largest part of Amazonian biodiversity. They could easily be conserved if no additional threats occur between now and 2050.

Puntos Calientes de Diversidad de Peces de Agua Dulce para las Prioridades de Conservación en la Cuenca del Amazonas Resumen Cada día, la conservación de los hábitats de agua dulce y su biodiversidad en la cuenca del Amazonas es un reto creciente de cara a los rápidos cambios antropogénicos. Usamos la base de datos de presencia de peces más completa que existe (2,355 especies válidas; 21,248 puntos de muestreo) y tres criterios ecológicos (carácter irremplazable, representatividad y vulnerabilidad) para identificar los puntos calientes de biodiversidad con base en seis patrones de conservación (tres proactivos, uno reactivo, uno representativo y uno balanceado) y así proporcionar un conjunto de soluciones alternativas para la planeación de la protección de peces de agua dulce en la cuenca del Amazonas. Identificamos para cada patrón de manera empírica el 17% de las subcuencas que deberían conservarse y realizamos un análisis de priorización identificando amenazas actuales y a futuro (2050) (es decir, grado de deforestación y fragmentación del hábitat causado por presas). Dos de nuestros tres patrones proactivos tuvieron alrededor del 65% de su superficie cubierta por áreas protegidas; niveles altos de carácter irremplazable (60% de especies endémicas) y de representatividad (71% de la fauna ictiológica del Amazonas); y una vulnerabilidad baja actual y a futuro. Entonces, estos dos patrones parecen estar más completos para la priorización de la conservación. El futuro de las subcuencas en estos dos patrones proactivos no está amenazado por las actividades humanas a corto plazo. Además, estas subcuencas albergan la mayor parte de la biodiversidad amazónica. Se podrían conservar fácilmente si ninguna amenaza adicional sucede entre ahora y el 2050.

Holocene extinctions of a top predator-Effects of time, habitat area and habitat subdivision.

Loss of habitat and changes in the spatial configuration of habitats are major drivers of species extinctions, but the responses to these drivers differ between organisms. To advance theory on how extinction risk from different types of habitat alteration relates to species-specific traits, there is a need for studies of the long-term extinction dynamic of individual species. The goal of this study was to quantify how habitat area and the spatial configuration of habitats affect extinction rate of an aquatic top predator, the northern pike Esox lucius L. We recorded the presence/absence of northern pike in 398 isolated habitat fragments, each one consisting of a number of interconnected lakes. Time since isolation of the habitat fragments, caused by cut-off from the main dispersal source in the Baltic Sea, varied between 0 and 10,000 years. Using survival regression, we analysed how pike population survival was affected by time since isolation, habitat size and habitat subdivision. The approach builds on the assumptions that pike colonized all fragments before isolation and that current absences result from extinctions. We verified these assumptions by testing (a) if pike was present in the region throughout the entire time period when the lakes formed and (b) if pike typically colonize lakes that are formed today. We also addressed the likelihood that unrecorded anthropogenic introductions could bias our estimates of extinction rate. Our results supported the interpretation that current patterns of presence/absence in our study system are shaped by extinctions. Further, we found that time since isolation and fragment area had strong effects on pike population survival. In contrast, spatial habitat subdivision (i.e. if a fragment contained few large lakes or many small lakes) and other environmental covariates describing climate and productivity were unrelated to pike survival. Over all, extinction rate was high in young fragments and decreased sharply with increasing fragment age. Our study demonstrates how the link between extinction rate and habitat size and spatial structure can be quantified. More similar studies may help us find generalizations that can guide management of habitat size and connectivity.

Unexpected fish diversity gradients in the Amazon basin.

Using the most comprehensive fish occurrence database, we evaluated the importance of ecological and historical drivers in diversity patterns of subdrainage basins across the Amazon system. Linear models reveal the influence of climatic conditions, habitat size and sub-basin isolation on species diversity. Unexpectedly, the species richness model also highlighted a negative upriver-downriver gradient, contrary to predictions of increasing richness at more downriver locations along fluvial gradients. This reverse gradient may be linked to the history of the Amazon drainage network, which, after isolation as western and eastern basins throughout the Miocene, only began flowing eastward 1-9 million years (Ma) ago. Our results suggest that the main center of fish diversity was located westward, with fish dispersal progressing eastward after the basins were united and the Amazon River assumed its modern course toward the Atlantic. This dispersal process seems not yet achieved, suggesting a recent formation of the current Amazon system.

Drainage network position and historical connectivity explain global patterns in freshwater fishes' range size.

Identifying the drivers and processes that determine globally the geographic range size of species is crucial to understanding the geographic distribution of biodiversity and further predicting the response of species to current global changes. However, these drivers and processes are still poorly understood, and no ecological explanation has emerged yet as preponderant in explaining the extent of species' geographical range. Here, we identify the main drivers of the geographic range size variation in freshwater fishes at global and biogeographic scales and determine how these drivers affect range size both directly and indirectly. We tested the main hypotheses already proposed to explain range size variation, using geographic ranges of 8,147 strictly freshwater fish species (i.e., 63% of all known species). We found that, contrary to terrestrial organisms, for which climate and topography seem preponderant in determining species' range size, the geographic range sizes of freshwater fishes are mostly explained by the species' position within the river network, and by the historical connection among river basins during Quaternary low-sea-level periods. Large-ranged fish species inhabit preferentially lowland areas of river basins, where hydrological connectivity is the highest, and also are found in river basins that were historically connected. The disproportionately high explanatory power of these two drivers suggests that connectivity is the key component of riverine fish geographic range sizes, independent of any other potential driver, and indicates that the accelerated rates in river fragmentation might strongly affect fish species distribution and freshwater biodiversity.

Biotic and abiotic drivers of species loss rate in isolated lakes.

Today, anthropogenic impacts are causing a serious crisis for global biodiversity, with rates of extinction increasing at an unprecedented rate. Extinctions typically occur after a certain delay, and understanding the mechanisms causing delays is a key challenge for both fundamental and applied perspectives. Here, we make use of natural experiments, the isolation of lakes by land uplift in Northern Scandinavia, to examine how yearly extinction rates are affected by time since isolation and a range of abiotic and biotic factors. In this aim, we adapted a model of delayed species loss within isolated communities to test the effects of time since isolation, area, pH, depth and the presence/absence of piscivores on extinction rates. As expected, we found that small and/or young lakes experience a higher annual rate of extinctions per species than larger and/or older ones. Compared to previous studies that were conducted for either young (few thousand years ago) or very old (>10,000 years ago) isolates, we demonstrated over a large and continuous temporal scales (50-5,000 years), similar relationship between extinction rates and age. We also show that extinction rates are modified by local environmental factors such as a strong negative effect of increasing pH. Our results urge for the need to consider the time since critical environmental changes occurred when studying extinction rates. In a wider perspective, our study demonstrates the need to consider extinction debts when modelling future effects of climate change, land-use changes or biological invasions on biodiversity.

Flow intermittence and ecosystem services in rivers of the Anthropocene.

Intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES) are watercourses that cease flow at some point in time and space. Arguably Earth's most widespread type of flowing water, IRES are expanding where Anthropocenic climates grow drier and human demands for water escalate.However, IRES have attracted far less research than perennial rivers and are undervalued by society, jeopardizing their restoration or protection. Provision of ecosystem services by IRES is especially poorly understood, hindering their integration into management plans in most countries.We conceptualize how flow intermittence governs ecosystem service provision and transfers at local and river-basin scales during flowing, non-flowing and dry phases. Even when dry or not flowing, IRES perform multiple ecosystem services that complement those of nearby perennial rivers.Synthesis and applications. Conceptualizing how flow intermittence in rivers and streams governs ecosystem services has applied a socio-ecological perspective for validating the ecosystem services of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams. This can be applied at all flow phases and in assessing impacts of altered flow intermittence on rivers and their ecosystem services in the Anthropocene.

A global database on freshwater fish species occurrence in drainage basins.

A growing interest is devoted to global-scale approaches in ecology and evolution that examine patterns and determinants of species diversity and the threats resulting from global change. These analyses obviously require global datasets of species distribution. Freshwater systems house a disproportionately high fraction of the global fish diversity considering the small proportion of the earth's surface that they occupy, and are one of the most threatened habitats on Earth. Here we provide complete species lists for 3119 drainage basins covering more than 80% of the Earth surface using 14953 fish species inhabiting permanently or occasionally freshwater systems. The database results from an extensive survey of native and non-native freshwater fish species distribution based on 1436 published papers, books, grey literature and web-based sources. Alone or in combination with further datasets on species biological and ecological characteristics and their evolutionary history, this database represents a highly valuable source of information for further studies on freshwater macroecology, macroevolution, biogeography and conservation.

Age-area scaling of extinction debt within isolated terrestrial vertebrate assemblages.

A new model of delayed species loss (extinction debt) within isolated communities is applied to a large data set of terrestrial vertebrate assemblages (n = 188) occupying habitat fragments or islands varying greatly in size and age. The model encapsulates previous approaches based on diversity-dependent (DD) extinction rates while allowing for a more flexible treatment of temporal dynamics. Three important results emerge. First, species loss rate slows down with the age of the isolate, a strong and general pattern largely unnoticed so far. Secondly, while being good candidates in the light of previous works, DD models fail to account for this pattern, a result that necessitates a search for other mechanisms. Thirdly, a simple diversity-independent model based on area (converted into population size) and age explains 97% of the variability in species loss rate and appears to be a promising predictive tool to handle extinction debt following habitat loss.

Global imprint of historical connectivity on freshwater fish biodiversity.

The relative importance of contemporary and historical processes is central for understanding biodiversity patterns. While several studies show that past conditions can partly explain the current biodiversity patterns, the role of history remains elusive. We reconstructed palaeo-drainage basins under lower sea level conditions (Last Glacial Maximum) to test whether the historical connectivity between basins left an imprint on the global patterns of freshwater fish biodiversity. After controlling for contemporary and past environmental conditions, we found that palaeo-connected basins displayed greater species richness but lower levels of endemism and beta diversity than did palaeo-disconnected basins. Palaeo-connected basins exhibited shallower distance decay of compositional similarity, suggesting that palaeo-river connections favoured the exchange of fish species. Finally, we found that a longer period of palaeo-connection resulted in lower levels of beta diversity. These findings reveal the first unambiguous results of the role played by history in explaining the global contemporary patterns of biodiversity.

Accounting for sampling error when inferring population synchrony from time-series data: a Bayesian state-space modelling approach with applications.

BACKGROUND: Data collected to inform time variations in natural population size are tainted by sampling error. Ignoring sampling error in population dynamics models induces bias in parameter estimators, e.g., density-dependence. In particular, when sampling errors are independent among populations, the classical estimator of the synchrony strength (zero-lag correlation) is biased downward. However, this bias is rarely taken into account in synchrony studies although it may lead to overemphasizing the role of intrinsic factors (e.g., dispersal) with respect to extrinsic factors (the Moran effect) in generating population synchrony as well as to underestimating the extinction risk of a metapopulation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The aim of this paper was first to illustrate the extent of the bias that can be encountered in empirical studies when sampling error is neglected. Second, we presented a space-state modelling approach that explicitly accounts for sampling error when quantifying population synchrony. Third, we exemplify our approach with datasets for which sampling variance (i) has been previously estimated, and (ii) has to be jointly estimated with population synchrony. Finally, we compared our results to those of a standard approach neglecting sampling variance. We showed that ignoring sampling variance can mask a synchrony pattern whatever its true value and that the common practice of averaging few replicates of population size estimates poorly performed at decreasing the bias of the classical estimator of the synchrony strength. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The state-space model used in this study provides a flexible way of accurately quantifying the strength of synchrony patterns from most population size data encountered in field studies, including over-dispersed count data. We provided a user-friendly R-program and a tutorial example to encourage further studies aiming at quantifying the strength of population synchrony to account for uncertainty in population size estimates.

When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

BACKGROUND: Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known. METHODS: And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales. CONCLUSIONS: In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

Quantifying variation in speciation and extinction rates with clade data.

High-level phylogenies are very common in evolutionary analyses, although they are often treated as incomplete data. Here, we provide statistical tools to analyze what we name "clade data," which are the ages of clades together with their numbers of species. We develop a general approach for the statistical modeling of variation in speciation and extinction rates, including temporal variation, unknown variation, and linear and nonlinear modeling. We show how this approach can be generalized to a wide range of situations, including testing the effects of life-history traits and environmental variables on diversification rates. We report the results of an extensive simulation study to assess the performance of some statistical tests presented here as well as of the estimators of speciation and extinction rates. These latter results suggest the possibility to estimate correctly extinction rate in the absence of fossils. An example with data on fish is presented.

Non-invasive ancient DNA protocol for fluid-preserved specimens and phylogenetic systematics of the genus Orestias (Teleostei: Cyprinodontidae).

Specimens stored in museum collections represent a crucial source of morphological and genetic information, notably for taxonomically problematic groups and extinct taxa. Although fluid-preserved specimens of groups such as teleosts may constitute an almost infinite source of DNA, few ancient DNA protocols have been applied to such material. In this study, we describe a non-invasive Guanidine-based (GuSCN) ancient DNA extraction protocol adapted to fluid-preserved specimens that we use to re-assess the systematics of the genus Orestias (Cyprinodontidae: Teleostei). The latter regroups pupfishes endemic to the inter-Andean basin that have been considered as a 'species flock', and for which the morphology-based taxonomic delimitations have been hotly debated. We extracted DNA from the type specimens of Orestias kept at the Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle of Paris, France, including the extinct species O. cuvieri. We then built the first molecular (control region [CR] and rhodopsin [RH]) phylogeny including historical and recently collected representatives of all the Orestias complexes as recognized by Parenti (1984a): agassizii, cuvieri, gilsoni and mulleri. Our ancient DNA extraction protocol was validated after PCR amplification through an approach based on fragment-by-fragment chimera detection. After optimization, we were able to amplify < 200 bp fragments from both mitochondrial and nuclear DNA (CR and RH, respectively) from probably formalin-fixed type specimens bathed entirely in the extraction fluid. Most of the individuals exhibited few modifications of their external structures after GuSCN bath. Our approach combining type material and 'fresh' specimens allowed us to taxonomically delineate four clades recovered from the well-resolved CR tree into four redefined complexes: agassizii (sensu stricto, i.e. excluding luteus-like species), luteus, cuvieri and gilsoni. The mulleri complex is polyphyletic. Our phylogenetic analyses based on both mitochondrial and nuclear DNA revealed a main, deep dichotomy within the genus Orestias, separating the agassizii complex from a clade grouped under shallow dichotomies as (luteus, (cuvieri, gilsoni)). This 'deep and shallow' diversification pattern could fit within a scenario of ancient divergence between the agassizii complex and the rest of Orestias, followed by a recent diversification or adaptive radiation within each complex during the Pleistocene, in- and outside the Lake Titicaca. We could not recover the reciprocal monophyly of any of the 15 species or morphotypes that were considered in our analyses, possibly due to incomplete lineage sorting and/or hybridization events. As a consequence, our results starkly question the delineation of a series of diagnostic characters listed in the literature for Orestias. Although not included in our phylogenetic analysis, the syntype of O. jussiei could not be assigned to the agassizii complex as newly defined. The CR sequence of the extinct O. cuvieri was recovered within the cuvieri clade (same haplotype as one representative of O. pentlandii), so the mtDNA of the former species might still be represented in the wild.

Global diversity patterns and cross-taxa convergence in freshwater systems.

Whereas global patterns and predictors of species diversity are well known for numerous terrestrial taxa, our understanding of freshwater diversity patterns and their predictors is much more limited. Here, we examine spatial concordance in global diversity patterns for five freshwater taxa (i.e. aquatic mammals, aquatic birds, fishes, crayfish and aquatic amphibians) and investigate the environmental factors driving these patterns at the river drainage basin grain. We find that species richness and endemism patterns are significantly correlated among taxa. We also show that cross-taxon congruence patterns are often induced by common responses of taxa to their contemporary and historical environments (i.e. convergent patterns). Apart from some taxa distinctiveness (i.e. fishes), the 'climate/productivity' hypothesis is found to explain the greatest variance in species richness and endemism patterns, followed by factors related to the 'history/dispersion' and 'area/environmental heterogeneity' hypotheses. As aquatic amphibians display the highest levels of congruency with other taxa, this taxon appears to be a good 'surrogate' candidate for developing global freshwater conservation planning at the river drainage basin grain.

Partitioning global patterns of freshwater fish beta diversity reveals contrasting signatures of past climate changes.

Here, we employ an additive partitioning framework to disentangle the contribution of spatial turnover and nestedness to beta diversity patterns in the global freshwater fish fauna. We find that spatial turnover and nestedness differ geographically in their contribution to freshwater fish beta diversity, a pattern that results from contrasting influences of Quaternary climate changes. Differences in fish faunas characterized by nestedness are greater in drainage basins that experienced larger amplitudes of Quaternary climate oscillations. Conversely, higher levels of spatial turnover are found in historically unglaciated drainage basins with high topographic relief, these having experienced greater Quaternary climate stability. Such an historical climate signature is not clearly detected when considering the overall level of beta diversity. Quantifying the relative roles of historical and ecological factors in explaining present-day patterns of beta diversity hence requires considering the different processes generating these patterns and not solely the overall level of beta diversity.

Metacommunity models predict the local-regional species richness relationship in a natural system.

Many natural communities exhibit positive relationships between local and regional species richness (LSR-RSR relationships), which can be either linear or curvilinear. Previous models have shown that the form of this relationship depends on the relative rates of colonization and extinction and the sensitivity of these rates to competition. We use simple models to show that the LSR-RSR relationship also depends on the type of metacommunity structure (Levins-like or mainland-island), and our models generate a wider range of realistic forms than do most previous models. We parameterize and test our models with two independent data sets for Daphnia in rock pools on islands in Finland and Sweden. We find that the Levins-like model with competition correctly predicts the observed LSR-RSR relationship and provides the best fit to the average local species richness per island. Simulations show that our models are robust to relaxing our assumption of identical species properties. Our study is one of the first to make and successfully test quantitative predictions for how a widely studied community pattern, the LSR-RSR relationship, arises from metacommunity dynamics.